#40 CFO Monday Macro

Hi Everyone! đź‘‹

Welcome to the new members of @TheFundCFO crew! Every M/W/F, we bring you actionable tools, real-world experiences, and insider insights for #VC CFOs and fund managers, #LP investors, and general industry enthusiasts/people who want to learn :).

CFO Macro

In early January, we shared insights in #29 CFO Macro: 2022 vs. 2023. We looked back at 2022 and shared some notable predictions for 2023. We started our Monday macro series earlier in February (#37 CFO Midnight Macro).

The markets were down last week (S&P -0.50%, NASDAQ -1.4%) but we’re still up for the year and tracking “ahead of plan.” More on that below!

Market Snapshot (Prices as of 4pm ET on 2/10/23; % YTD)

The Macro Top 5

  1. Markets: see above - still in the green after a slight step-back last week.

  2. Inflation: tomorrow, the Labor Department will release CPI for January. Economists are expecting a 0.4% increase, translating to 6.2% annual growth. We still have a ways to go towards a “more normal market environment” forecasted by our go-to macro advisor, Eddie Duszlak, CIO at Virtuent.

  1. Interest rates: The Fed remains determined to fight inflation so the CPI print tomorrow will be closely watched. The FOMC benchmark federal funds rate remains at a range of of 4.5% to 4.75% (as of February 1st). The next meeting is in March with another 0.25% increase expected (could change w/ a high CPI print).

  2. Employment: Labor market still tight. A strong appetite for labor is keeping pressure on the Fed. The US added >500k jobs in January. The tech sector cut jobs by another ~10k last week (Twilio (1.5k), Yahoo (1.6k), Zoom (1.3k), and Dell (6.7k)).

  3. Tech stocks: After Meta stole the show the prior week (+26%), last week was all about Microsoft/ChatGPT vs. Google’s Bard. Google flopped with its AI demo of Bard, with the stock dropping 7.5% (~$160b) while Microsoft was flat. Google v Microsoft: who will win the AI chatbot race? 

That’s all for today folks! Thanks for your support and for spreading the word! Share this on Twitter or LinkedIn to help grow “the crew!”